BRIEF: Abortion Bans May Be Driving Permanent Relocations in Young Adults

Analysis of USPS data reveals increased net out-migration from states with total abortion bans, particularly among single-person households. The moves are permanent relocations.

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The study “Are People Fleeing States with Abortion Bans?” by Daniel L. Dench, Kelly Lifchez, Jason M. Lindo, and Jancy Ling Liu, affiliated with the Georgia Institute of Technology and The College of Wooster, assessed whether the 2022 Dobbs Supreme Court decision influenced migration patterns across the United States.¹ Submitted in January 2025 and revised in June 2025, this study goes beyond typical research focused on fertility or health by measuring the impact of abortion restrictions on migration.

What They Found

States with full abortion bans experienced net population losses of about 4.9 people per 10,000 residents each quarter after Dobbs, totaling approximately 146,000 people in the first year. The outflow was particularly strong among single-person households, reaching nearly 28 per 10,000 by the end of the last quarter.²

Family households also moved away, but to a lesser extent. Most of these moves were permanent relocations. States with less strict abortion restrictions also saw increased out-migration, though the data are less certain.

These findings show how abortion policies can influence more than fertility and health. They impact state economies, labor markets, and planning by influencing where people, especially younger workers, choose to live.

If sustained, this could mean a 1.41% population loss over five years in ban states, comparable to the impact of a high crime rate or heavy pollution.

How Did They Exclude Other Explanations for the Shift?

The methodology accounted for existing migration trends, including those during the pandemic, and multiple tests confirmed that the observed migration changes are linked to abortion policies rather than other factors.

Using USPS change-of-address data from 2018 to 2023, the authors applied a synthetic difference-in-differences method to examine whether abortion policies influence where people choose to live.

What Limitations Exist?

Because it only includes moves filed through USPS change-of-address requests, the study likely underestimates total migration. It cannot track the exact origin and destination or individual motivations for moving.

The data only cover about a year after the Dobbs decision, so its long-term effects are yet to be determined. Still, the study’s design and checks make it clear that the migration changes are probably related to abortion policies in some capacity, rather than due to random chance or other factors.

A real effect is likely, supported by other studies showing abortion policies influence how younger people plan their futures. Surveys show abortion bans are already affecting medical student program choices. Fewer are interested in pursuing careers in obstetrics, urology, and possibly emergency medicine. This finding is more certain given the data from 2023 and 2024.

Footnotes